Football betting tips: Premier League

Football betting tips: Premier League

1.5pts Brentford to beat Leicester at 21/20 (bet365)

0.5pt Brentford -1 handicap at 13/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Another positive weekend in the books, with the column returning +4.45pts profit basically thanks to Ethan Nwaneri.

We went big on the generous prices on offer for the youngster to register 1+ and 2+ shots on target and he sorted us out. Unfortunately, everyone has now cottoned on to how good he is, meaning the prices have been smashed in for this weekend's clash.

Elsewhere we had Bournemouth inflicting another heavy defeat on Southampton, a Brighton win over Chelsea for the second time in a week - incredibly at the same price - and probably the most satisfying of all, the under 2.5 goals in Spurs vs United at a huge price of 7/4.

Last week makes it four profitable weeks from the last five, so let's hope the good form continues. Like last week's column, this edition has been published earlier with Friday's tips written and ready to go. All of Saturday's tips will be published by 2pm on Friday, while Sunday's will be up by 4pm.

Unfortunately, we simply have to keep backing against Leicester. They are showing no signs of improvement at all under Ruud van Nistelrooy, losing nine of their last 10 league games and five straight at the King Power.

The Foxes are comfortably one of the three worst teams in the league according to xG data, so it's no surprise to see them floundering.

BRENTFORD are the visitors and have to back the Bees TO WIN at odds-against prices.

Unsurprisingly Thomas Frank's side's away fortunes have turned in a positive direction just as their road schedule has eased. After failing to win any of their first nine away league matches (D2 L7), with seven of those coming against top 12 sides, they have since won three and drawn one against sides 13th and below.

It's coincided with the opposite happening at home, where they started emphatically thanks to a kind schedule (7W 1D) but have since been beaten up as things got tough (L4 D1).

Ultimately, that's Brentford's level - they generally beat the lesser sides and lose to the big boys, so we should back them accordingly here.

Price-wise they look value here too. Brighton (4/6), Crystal Palace (10/11) and Fulham (4/5) have all been to the King Power in the last six home league games and been a shorter price than Brentford are this weekend, and I'd put the Bees somewhere in between Palace and Fulham's price, so anything above 17/20 represents value in my book.

I'll also have a smaller bet on BRENTFORD -1 HANDICAP at 13/5.

All of Leicester's last five home defeats have seen this line covered, while Brentford recently smashed the Foxes' fellow promoted side Southampton 5-0 on the road and have been creating plenty of chances against better teams than they face on Friday.

Score prediction: Leicester 0-2 Brentford